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Turkey

The year 2009 was marked by a sharp drop in activity. GDP dropped by 13, 9% in the first quarter, the sharpest quarterly decline in the country since World War II, and 6% for the full year 2009. But these results must be qualified in several respects:

The recession has had positive side effects traditionally weak on two points of the Turkish economy: first, inflation was lower in 2009 at the official target set by the Central Bank, 7.5%. Indeed, the index of consumer prices stood at 6.5% at end-December 2009, on the other hand, the negative balance of current account balance would have declined by 42 billion USD in 2008 (5, 7% of GDP) to 11 billion USD in 2009, representing 1.8% of GDP due to a substantial contraction in the deficit of trade balance.

The Turkish banking sector has been spared by the financial crisis, thanks to a reorganization of the sector after the 2001 crisis, the weak management activities derivatives, and on liquidity.

Turkey has benefited from an increase in the sovereign rating by two of the three largest international rating agencies, and a loan of 2 billion USD in thirty years launched by the Turkish Treasury, in the absence of any agreement with the IMF.

Thus, the government is already anticipating a return to growth in height of about 3.5% in 2010 and 4 and 5% respectively for the next two years.

However, the improvement in the macroeconomic environment should be viewed with caution for several reasons:

Despite its efforts to strengthen its trade relations with countries in the Middle East, Turkey still dependent countries of the European Union which represented almost half of Turkish exports.

The Turkish economy could be affected by a shock second round of the international crisis.

The fiscal position has deteriorated (a budget deficit estimated at 6.6% of GDP against 1% under the initial budget law for 2009) without the government has sufficiently clarified its plan to reduce the budget deficit.

Electoral prospects (in 2011 legislative and presidential elections in 2012) might refer to a later date the necessary structural reforms.


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